Market Outlook

Hello folks! Couple things I will do here tonight. I will be looking through some charts, and will provide my market outlook after doing some proprietary calculations. It is past 1am now as I type and I have been chatting with my TR on MSN.. not on TA and stuff but on life experiences and stuff. I think he’s a lil more emotional tonight hehe!

The STI continued its retracement today, and did a gap fill intraday. Referring to yesterday’s chart, here’s the same one with today’s data in it. Look at how it filled the gap. Isn’t it amazing? It also created a gap resistance now in the process… grrr.  Ok here’s my outlook and forecast. Late last year I calculated that the STI could top at 1915 for the upward move, pending some confirmation in price actions early Jan.  Well it is early Jan and after doing another round of analysis, here’s my take- My original view that the upside for now will be capped at around 1915 still stands. The levels on STI mentioned in the previous post stands. If supports all begin to crack one by one, then a reversal could be confirmed. But if the market rebounds (and I think in the immediate term it should) I will be looking to offload long positions as close to 1920 as possible. Levels as shown here.I anticipate a turn back on the upside next week, from Mon or Tues thereabouts.

HSI is now supported by 20MA. Where will it head tomorrow? hmmm…  It does have a lot of room on the downside before the next major supports are tested.

Here’s Epure for friends who have vested interest. The bearish divergence on MFI is obvious. It warns of money flowing out and that the upmove is not sustainable. It does not mean the price will tank. It means one should no longer add positions and should be looking to offload little by little. The bearish divergence is a preempt that the upmove is limited.  Fibonacci was drawn using 0.165 as bottom and 0.305 as top. Interim key fibo levels are as seen. Pretty neat don’t you think? Other indicators are fine so far. But remember they tend to be lagging and will show only after price has moved. I use divergences as they are a forecast of a possible trend reversal.

I closed my shorts on Capitaland after it hit $3. I then reversed them into long positions.  Look at where the fibonacci level is. 2.98. Which also happened to be intraday low today. Went long on just a couple lots after reversing the shorts. Cut loss is around 2.64. Target? I’ll use 3.30 for now, bearing in mind my outlook on the STI and some of the bearish indicators that are in formation. What am I looking for now? Confirmation. As my TR has reminded me, confirm is when the price bounces off a line, and NOT when it is sitting on that line.  So tomorrow is a crucial day.

I also entered CityDev but on hindsight it was a mistake. It does appear that it could re-test 6.25 indeed which will be a better price to go long. Breaking that will mean a cut loss point for me. I would like to see the price turn back up here now, because it would be nice to see a higher low on retracement. But if it re-tests that base support it is still ok. Cracking that, is NOT okay. So I do make mistakes still. Even though I have a vested interest, I am being objective by saying today is definitely not a good entry day for it. Noticed how Capland has tested the 50% level while CityDev hasn’t yet so the probability for it to do so is there.

Quick check on the performance of TopGlove. Seems like a follow through but not convincing yet. Let’s see.

HKLand is terrible but it is too late to short now. A nice rebound towards 2.45 is good and if it offers resistance there, it will be a good shorting entry target. Keep an eye.

Kepcorp doesn’t look nice either. If 4.94 cracks, prepare for a short.

US Markets are marginally in the red, and intraday lows bounced off MA support levels. Seems to be panning the way of an upmove possibly next week still. Let’s see how it closes! Confirmation of a support comes when the following day’s price bounces off… thanks Jay for the reminder!