Weekend Review

Hey folks. It was nice to see some familiar faces at the Asia Traders and Investors Conference held at Suntec over the weekend. Jay and I expected ourselves to bump into quite a few people we know and true enough we did. However it is apparent the community is still very small here in Singapore and is definitely nowhere near the size of PC shows and all. However for those who went, I trust you would have gotten some very interesting insights from market movements to the outlook of gold prices. Gold in particular is quite interesting. Jay and I are considering to move some money over to trade gold. The chart is fairly simple. Resistance at 920, support at 850 region with current prices around 870 plus minus. Technical indicators do show one possible flush upwards to test that support line at most, before coming back down below 800. The 920 resistance is a lower high created and is an obvious lower high. In the short term, the odds definitely favor on the short side.

Jay also got to see how a particular fibonacci projection used by Don Schellenberg is done. I saw that during one of the CMC Markets seminar conducted by Don and it did interest me a hell lot then cause the projection tool is quite powerful. Let’s see if ChartNexus can study this and feature it in their software.

Anyway moving onto the charts, here’s a look at the STI Daily and weekly charts.

Very nice inv hammer formed last week during which the 1960 resistance was tested. Tested it and pulled back. This coming week will show if that candle will be confirmed.

What interests me more is on the daily chart.  On obvious bearish diverence which has been tested 3 times and is still in fruition. With each test the divergence is somewhat more probable of following through. My long positions were closed and I initiated new short positions on certain counters and on the STI. Whether it will be a reversal or a retracement that happens to be seen. TP Support from me is set at gap fill 1836 level.

UOB, same thing. No change. Resisted at 100MA, with a bearish divergence. In fact bearish divergences spotted everywhere almost,  even with CityDev, though it is a 2 point divergence rather than the more powerful 3 point on the STI.

OCBC, pretty neat, the most bullish of all the banks. Fibonacci projected upside remained as resistance. Vested, on the short side.

SIA on the other hand, seems more bullish and I will be looking at going long on this soon enough. In good time.

I think in general the idea now is to really see how much of a pullback this will go. Some calcualtions show May to have a more probable pull back than this one.. but we will have to see where this goes. In January I said I expect this year to have a white hammer on the yearly chart. This implies I anticipate new lows, but a higher close at the end of the year compared to the opening on Jan 2nd. This is by far an anticipation only. Everyone hopes things get better by the end of the year… and that includes me.Even if it doesn’t get better, hopefully the worst would be over. And by the looks of it, that view is still in play. We need 1 big flush up to flush the bears, and one more flush down to flush away the bulls and then we can all pretty much begin on a clean slate for a slow but steady (hopefully) recovery.