Weekend Roundup – 16th Aug 2009

Hey folks. Sorry for the absence. Been quite ill the whole week.

Let me do a round up on the indices first.

The SSE took quite a hit violating the bullish candle stick and cracking past the 50MA. It is generally weak and is headed for the 50% retracement support at 3000.  I have been mulling over if I should move some CPF UTs into there. I suppose I will watch what happens at 3000. The SSE has been influencing HSI and in turn the STI.

HSI is weak but at least it maintained within its trading range. Support at around 20300 where the daily 20MA is in to support. This line also coincides with the weekly 100MA support and should offer pretty strong support.

The DJIA has also been heading sideways after hitting a resistive level as seen in the weekly chart.

The STI behaved like it was in a trading range.. However looking at the chart it seems to be rebounding with the trend intact. Daily chart buy signals hasn’t been violated. But for some reason I am getting increasingly ocnfused over it’s direction somewhat. It is weird. But the STI did close higher than previous days, for 2 days running now.

Here’s my observation. Some counters have been heading up n down at support and resistance levels. ie, sideway movement. Some others continued to breakout. Eg Genting, CityDev has decided to move too. A lot of buy signals triggered on Friday. I will be looking at a couple things. If buy signals remain, or get violated. So far so good. The next thing I will be looking for is the current top, and if it breaks out, or it forms a double top, or it forms a lower high. All these are important but are lagging still in nature.  I have long positions on the STI, looking at how 2650 behaves before deciding if I will hold or take profit. I am also progressively taking profits off the table, readjusting my high yield plays, and taking a short break till I have clarity. This clarity should show itself this week along if there is a proper trend, or it has turned sideways, or if a reversal is imminent.

My strategy is to see how 2650 and 2750 behaves. A breakout would be good and should head towards 2880.  A break below 2550 should see some gap covering  and a good support at 2465 where it could be nice to load things up. Current indicators show a retest of 2700 to be quite probable. Let’s see!