Noble Grp – Failure to secure its deal?

Trend: Downtrend, 20ma down, MacD below 0

Support: 2.98 – 3.00 (falling window), 2.87, 2.74 (200ma close)

Resistance: 3.14 (20ma + 100ma), 3.24 (50ma close)

Observations:
Candlestick – A series of dojis seen
Histogram –2G. Bullish divergence is seen.
RSI – Slightly above 30%. Bullish divergence is seen.
Stochastic – Bullish crossover. Oversold.
Bollinger Band – Closer to lower band.

Conclusion:
Noble group has been suffering a downtrend for more than a month and did not manage to continue its uptrend. Looking back into history, it seems that it is forming a double top.

Currently, Noble group is trading very close to the rising window as support level and could be supported. Stochastic indicates that there might be a possibility of a rebound to be seen, but the rebound could be capped by the 20ma.

But if the support between 2.98 – 3.00 fails to hold, it could seek 2.87 as the next support. The downside could be limited as the indicators indicated bullish divergence. Hence, once should not expect to ride on the downtrend.

What to watch out for this week:
1) If there is a rebound, it might be resisted by 3.14 level to form lower high.
2) If 2.98 – 3.00 fails to hold, a lower low could be form at 2.87 level.

Trading strategy to adapt right now:
- Wait for rebound to 20ma and initiate a short position when bearish candles are seen
- Wait for 2.98 level to crack with high volume and initiate a short position
- Do not expect to ride the downtrend and be cautious with the short position

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