Capitaland – Uptrend formation or just a Bear rally?

Trend: Uptrend (lack of higher low), 20ma slightly up, MacD just above 0

Support: 3.62 (20ma close), 3.73 (50ma)

Resistance: 3.82 (100ma), 3.89 (falling window), 3.96 (200ma close)

Observations:
Candlestick – Doji with longer upper shadow testing 100ma
Histogram –Many Gs, No bearish divergence is seen.
RSI – Overbought. No bearish divergence is seen.
Stochastic – Bearish crossover nearly cross. Overbought.
Bollinger Band – Out of upper band.

Conclusion:
Capitaland did indeed have a fantastic breakout and starting to reverse its downtrend, fulfilling the bullish divergence indication. But will this new uptrend be sustainable or could it be just a bear rally?
After Capitaland’s breakout of 3.62 level during last Friday, Capitaland carried on its rally and even broke 50ma as resistance. Readings from the indicators have reinforced that the trend could have already turned uptrend. What is lacking right now is a higher low confirmation for its uptrend movement.
Higher low could be formed at either 50ma (3.73) or 20ma (3.62). But based on the theory of Bollinger band, when price goes out of upper band, it might retrace back to 20ma. Hence, there could be a higher probability that a higher low to be forming at 20ma.
On the other hand, Capitaland is trading below 200ma which means that its weekly trend is bearish. Hence, the upside could be capped at 200ma currently. Therefore, we should be cautious with it when it reaches 3.89 and 3.96 resistance levels.
What to watch out for this week:
1) Retracement to 3.73 or 3.62 levels
2) Breakout of 100ma
3) Resistance at 3.89 or 3.96 levels

Trading strategy to adapt right now:
- Wait for a higher low formation at 3.73 or 3.62 levels
- Adopt breakout play if 3.82 breaks

*Disclaimer applies