A fail would see it fall below 3.48 however there are MA supports below. In any case I wouldn’t want to see it pull back to 3.48 anymore which can imply it is a whipsaw con-job.

I’ve only done one trade thus far, which was yesterday on SGX. A short position entered at 7.75. The best place for a short is at aroudn 7.83 with a 7.90 as a stop.

Gap cover was done successfully but closed lower. Bearish signs all over. A crack below 7.7 and 7.6 will indicate a likely wave of more downside. If 7.60 cracks especially, I may enter with more short positions.

Have a great holiday ahead!

The STI is ugly. It is sitting on a very important support right now with 2600-2640 being extremely critical. A break below 2600 with heavy volume could set an eventual target of around 2100. Will this be a double dip? A W shape recovery? No one will know till things have happened. For now however, the onst is for me to release more of my holdings as the market rebounds. This could include reits. For those in my CPF I do not intend to cut the positions as I want to maintain the excess amount beyond 20k to be in invesments. However to hedge against downside, I will have to short on the way down.

It is obvious like STI, capitaland has formed a very similar bear flag formation too. The price target of a bear flag confirmation on the STI is about 200-300 points down. Supports noted by 200MA which is somewhat near where the bear flag target is. Resistances include all the gap resistances above.

A few counters to note are noble and some other counters showing short signals with a very large pocket to go below due to the run up in prices without any meaningful supports created due to that. Yanlord has totally died and a few other counters. Buy signals have been failing since couple weeks ago and is a sign of a change in direction so please be aware of it.

The strategy now is to release holdings as the market rebounds and stick with cash. The chart is very similar to what happened in 2001-2003 and based on the prices after the rally it has gone way ahead of fundamentals and will need to correct. 2010 should see a relatively volatile season with trading opportunities if one is careful enough to take profits accordingly, or cut losses where necessary.

I will be looking at the market from both FA and TA on a longer term basis.  Remember I said I expected STI to hold at 2750-2800. When those cracked, the momentum has changed. I expect buyers to come in to support the prices at around 2600 but if it doesn’t hold, 2600 could very well break like it wasn’t dare as investors dump and traders begin short positions.

I will come back soon again!

What a week it has been with a retracement that people seem to be waiting for. The STI falling like dead birds but bouncing off to close with a nice white candle that’s similar to the HSI. The retracement level for the STI is at 38.2% at 2800 assuming a top at 2945 and a bottom at 2570. A break below 38.2% could see a 50% retracement, currently at 2750. Don’t we call remember that line? I do anticipate that to hold for a bullish continuation move for a fall below that level will be bear, similar to how the HSI has been. Watch for gap covering on a rebound till 2850 as seen in the chart. What I will be looking for is either a confirmation of the bullish reversal candle, or a violation of it which could see 2750 in play.

The HSI has been bear as mentioned but with a similar reversal hammer, let’s see how this goes. The first resistance would be at about 21000.

SIA Eng had a buy signal triggered and I entered it as a tikam with a 3.75 as a TP and a 3.45 as a support.

GoldenAgri has another bullish reversal candlestick similar to that on the STI and HSI. I have not gone in for this one, preferring to wait for confirmation as I have already gone in on others. I need to hedge my risks.

It should be an interesting week to see where the prices move. Keep a watch out!

Keep your eyes peeled for this as big caps tend to be sluggish but a drop in oil price and a play into earnings may come into effect.

Many counters have been retracing despite the STI heading upwards. Take SIA for example, closing at support today  with 20MA as a resistance. If 14.60 is recaptured a buy signal will be formed.  It does appear we do have some meat left for retracement yet buy signals can be triggered anytime to prop the prices a little higher. Watch for Ascendas Reit which formed a little bullish reversal hammer today. A close above 2.05 could be good for upside while a crack below 2 should see 1.95 support come into play. The risk for the upside is that the market is overbought, however bear in mind that in a strong bull trend, markets and counters can stay overbought for quite a while. The reverse is true for a bear market.